In a mild recession, CMHC predicts 480,000 homes sold at $693,000 average.
Housing starts are projected at 247,000 in 2026, down from 259,000 in 2025.
Housing starts under recession scenario will fall to 243,000, reflecting softer market conditions.
In a recession, home prices are expected to dip modestly — about $5,000 or less — not dramatically.