GDP ↓ 1.6% in Q2, mostly from weaker exports, while domestic demand stayed resilient and masked headline weakness.

Consumer spending ↑ 4.5% and housing investment ↑ 6.3%, showing earlier rate cuts are supporting rate-sensitive sectors.

Markets price 48% chance of a September cut, but pending labour and inflation data may delay action.

Policy impact needs 12–24 months, so the Bank may pause to let previous easing work through the economy.